Regime Change in Iran Unlikely Amid Israel Conflict, Experts Say

As tensions between Israel and Iran reach a boiling point, hopes of a swift regime change in Tehran are quickly fading. According to Middle East analysts, the Islamic Republic’s entrenched political system, combined with rising nationalism during wartime, makes the collapse of the regime highly unlikely in the near term.

🛑 War Strengthens, Not Weakens, the Iranian Regime

Despite devastating Israeli airstrikes—some supported by U.S. forces—on nuclear facilities and missile production sites, internal political pressure on Iran’s ruling elite appears limited. Instead, the conflict is galvanizing public support for the regime, even among segments of the population that were previously critical of the government.

“What we’re seeing now is classic wartime unity,” said one senior analyst. “When a nation is attacked, people rally around their flag—even if they dislike the people waving it.”

This unintended consequence has effectively shielded Iran’s leadership from internal collapse, as nationalist sentiment surges.

🏛️ A System Built to Survive

Iran’s political system is a complex hybrid of theocracy and authoritarianism, built to withstand both domestic unrest and foreign pressure. Power is concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—two institutions that have remained virtually untouchable for decades.

The IRGC, in particular, plays a crucial role not just in defense, but in Iran’s economy, intelligence, and regional influence. Its deep entrenchment makes regime change from the outside nearly impossible without full-scale war—something even hawkish policymakers hesitate to pursue.

🇺🇸 U.S. Strategy: Pressure Without Overthrow

While the United States has supported targeted military operations and continues to apply crippling economic sanctions, the Biden and Trump administrations have both avoided openly advocating for regime change in Iran. The fear of repeating the post-Saddam vacuum in Iraq or the Libyan collapse looms large in foreign policy circles.

Instead, U.S. officials have signaled that the goal is to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions and deter its regional aggression, not to replace its leadership through force.

💬 Public Sentiment: Reform, Not Revolution

Although economic dissatisfaction and calls for reform have been widespread among Iranian youth and urban populations, experts say the public is not calling for Western intervention. On the contrary, foreign attacks often reinforce support for the regime, with many Iranians viewing them as illegitimate violations of sovereignty.

True change, analysts argue, is more likely to come from within, through long-term societal shifts, generational pressures, and gradual erosion of ideological control—not external military campaigns.