Early Vote Trends Signal Major Shift in NYC Mayoral Primary as Mamdani Takes the Lead
Early voting in the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary has seen a historic surge, dramatically reshaping the electoral landscape and putting progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani in a strong position ahead of primary day.
According to official reports, over 384,000 early votes have already been cast—doubling the early voting numbers from the 2021 race. The massive turnout reflects a highly energized electorate, with younger and more progressive voters leading the charge.
📈 Progressive Momentum Builds
Nearly 45% of early voters are under the age of 45, a demographic strongly favoring Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist state assemblyman known for championing climate justice, housing reform, and economic equity.
Mamdani’s grassroots campaign has seen impressive traction in boroughs like Brooklyn and Manhattan, which are leading in early vote volume. Notably, Brooklyn has now overtaken Manhattan in total ballots cast—an unprecedented shift that could mark a critical advantage for Mamdani.
In contrast, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as a centrist, has been leaning heavily on support from older, more moderate voters. But with high heat forecasts for primary day, his strategy faces a major hurdle.
☀️ Heat Wave Threatens Cuomo’s Base
Forecasts show temperatures reaching over 100°F on June 25, which could suppress day-of voter turnout—particularly among older New Yorkers who traditionally prefer voting in person.
In response, the Cuomo campaign has been urging supporters to vote early. They’ve set up cooling stations and water support at polling sites across Queens and Staten Island in a last-ditch effort to keep turnout numbers up.
🗳️ Ranked-Choice Voting Adds New Complexity
This year’s primary again uses ranked-choice voting (RCV), allowing voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference. While Mamdani is dominating first-choice votes among young and progressive voters, second- and third-choice votes could prove decisive.
With Mayor Eric Adams opting not to seek re-election within the Democratic primary, some of his centrist base may pivot toward Cuomo as a second choice. However, Mamdani could also benefit from transfers from eliminated progressive candidates.
🕒 What Happens Next?
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Preliminary results from early ballots are expected late on June 25.
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Full tabulation of RCV—including absentee ballots and ranked-choice redistributions—will likely stretch into early July.
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Election officials are emphasizing patience, as final results could depend on late-arriving ballots and how lower-ranked choices redistribute.
🧭 The Bottom Line
The early voting surge, fueled by progressive enthusiasm and concerns over Election Day weather, has shifted momentum sharply in Mamdani’s favor. Cuomo, while still competitive, is now on the defensive, relying on a strong showing from his traditional base despite difficult conditions.
All eyes are on New York City as it awaits what could be one of the most consequential—and unpredictable—mayoral primary outcomes in recent history.
